Putin's Offensive Campaign. Info

[Jolls]

Any use of a nuke would **** Putin in the long run

To be fair, Prof. Snyder did cover early in the piece how Putin is using the hint of a threat of Nuclear weapons as a form of psych warfare.

I agree with both of you. I thought the author did a good job covering what is a complex issue.

For completeness though, in my opinion, he should have covered the possibility of options other than the mushroom cloud end to the conflict. He has several WMD/WME options that he could consider to take the focus off issues on the home front. Russia has certainly spent a lot of effort in developing 4th generation chem warfare agents, incapacitating agents and thermobarics.

I trust the tactical use of WME/WMD does not come to the fore - but he could gamble that tactical use would provide the West/UN with a way out of direct confrontation. It also doesn't require a huge concentration of troops for them to be effective and the ground can be recovered almost immediately so it can't be ruled out completely- these weapon systems can be, and in several instances have been, used tactically. The downside of any use is that there will be strategic implications.

His conclusion remains valid; however, for completeness I simply though he should have covered the middle ground given that Vlad does not rationalise things as we do.

The comparison to Hitler and Stalingrad are great and provides a good historic perspective. History is something that clearly he does not comprehend. I also doubt he entered the conflict with a clear exit strategy.

I trust that the change of seasons brings this to an end - but they are Russian and they are stoic.

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

 

[UTE042_NZ]

What could a Putin's target for any tactical small-yield battlefield nuclear weapon be? The only fixed targets they have been able to hit within unoccupied Ukraine seem to be civilian infrastructure such as apartment buildings, opera theatres, railway stations, schools, hospitals, shopping centers and mechanical workshops etc. Even then they often near-miss and hit the adjacent carparks. The Ukrainian forces don't cluster in large groups and are operatinging in self-organising highly mobile units. They are writing an entirely new chapter in the history of human warfare, as Snyder pointed out.

Would Putin order (or his officers follow those orders) for any release of nuclear material on land that he has just claimed is "part of Russia forever" and risk contaminating it and the people, who are supposedly now Russians, including the Russian forcs there? Assuming the weapons actually work and don't kill the operators. What if the wind blows radioactive dust back into Russia? Or a NATO country - then it would be all on!

In considering all these "what ifs" of potential nuclear possibilities on the battlefield we succumb to the very aim of Putin's psyche warfare - and begin thinking how he wants and believes, that everyone in the weak western democracies will think, and to believe that the falsehood of his bluff is a truth. Just as Tim Snyder described.

 

[Immortality]

I would guess that if they were to go down that route they would use something like chemical/biological as it's harder to prove and Russia has these weapons usable with artillery which is their bread and butter type warfare.

I have also seen 1 report of possible chemical weapons in the war zone (drone footage) and Russia has a recent history of using such weapons in Syria however unlike in Syria, there is great coverage in Ukraine so any use of such weapons would be seen by the world almost immediately.

I also don't believe the theory of escalate to de-escalate will work either, I think the exact opposite would occur.

But as said, we are dealing with a madman/tyrant and it's hard to predict what is going on in his little head, after all, he did just blow up his own pipe lines.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

A thought. When starting this thread to post information yesterday, it was with no intent to opine or argue. Merely to share with yous points of views I find thought provoking. We are living, at a safe distance for now, in what will be for history a rich and active period. These writings by people who are or have been there or in communication with others who witness and experience the true conditions and realities as they happen help me to imagine I "walk a mile on someone elses shoes" briefly.

Russia Wants to Lock Ukraine Back in the Soviet Cellar

What precisely is this cellar that Russia wants to drive Ukraine into? What lurks in the basement of the Russian mind?

time.com

Tempted to express an opinion about Time and tendencies for hyperbole, but no, must bite my tongue. I'll go and look for another piece from a few days back which I keep thinking about.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Here it is. For fellow empathy junkies, a sister or daughter's point of view.
Warning: For any who know the smell of decomposing flesh, prepare to be triggered for that taste in the back of your throat.

Ukraine Dispatch: The Smell of Izium

After touring the Odesa opera theater during an air raid, Zarina Zabrisky travels to the shelled city of Kharkiv and witnesses the mass graves at Izium.

gregolear.substack.com

 

[Jolls]

I'm with you @UTE042_NZ. It is certainly thought provoking and something I have been keeping an eye on.

I understand your intent and certainly trust I am not coming across as argumentative. For my part it is great to understand the thoughts of others. I trust my response simply provides food for thought.

My understanding is that we agree that the tac nuc is the second least likely option - however, I think that the author was remis in not covering the lower end of the WMD and not discussing the WME side of the Russian arsenal.

What could a Putin's target for any tactical small-yield battlefield nuclear weapon be?

The most likely use would be as a last ditch effort in defence if he were to be pushed back towards the border. This would be where the Ukranians are most likely to mass troops for the final push. It may not be a tac nuc but certainly could be the use of a 4th Generation Chem Warfare, an incapacitating agent or something from the thermobaric range of weapon systems.

Would Putin order (or his officers follow those orders) for any release of nuclear material on land that he has just claimed is "part of Russia forever" and risk contaminating it and the people, who are supposedly now Russians, including the Russian forcs there?

It is not widely understood that the use of a nuclear weapon does not have to result in the irradiation and fallout that is depicted on our televisions. A small airburst provides an EMP that can disrupt communications followed by a tremendous blast wave - the overpressure enough to kill any combatants in the area. As it is an airburst there is nothing to irradiate and create fallout across the globe.

For mine it is more likely that he could opt to use a thermobaric weapon system to produce a similar overpressure effect or the use of incapacitating agent as a means to disrupt enemy forces.

As there have already been accusations of WME use it shouldn't be discounted out of hand, rather carefully assessed. I expect that there are people in windowless offices doing and redoing assessments as we speak.

As mentioned earlier - I think the likelihood is low - but the effect is still catastrophic and we aren't dealing with a rational leadership.

I think his article is good; however, he missed the examination of these options. I'm simply throwing it out there as another option to consider.

Cheers n Beers
Jolls.

 

[Fu Manchu]

I’ve been watching a guy on YouTube that posts every month or so with highly detailed analysis of various situations in the war. He is objective in the approach and something that’s not seen enough.

Perun is the channel. He is an analyst of some sort by day. It’s he job to know the topics he covers. The info is detailed, objective, intelligent, and extremely well structured. It’s given me an excellent basis to see through so much of the garbage.

It’s hard to watch anything from the US as each side has strong bias with information used to stir the viewers emotions instead.

Euro based news (BBC, F24, DW) tends to be far more factual and objective.

Perun’s latest analysis touches on some of that (along what @UTE042_NZ pisted at the start) but he mentions it’s not his strong point so doesn’t dig into it too much.

Thanks for posting that @UTE042_NZ

 

[Jolls]

Another good unbiased assessment with well considered and apt conclusions drawn. Now time will tell - will mobilisation be effective or will it be the death (perhaps literally) of Vlad and his cronies?

 

[Immortality]

If the pictures I've seen of those mobilized it will be a disaster, if they equip those new soldiers as well as those now on the front lines it will be a disaster. Conscripts against an army that is fighting for their land, families/kin that are highly motivated with ever improving weapons/equipment will end in disaster.

To win Putin will need to send his best trained and equipped troops which at this point will require full mobilization.

 

[Immortality]

Happy birthday Putin,

'Punch in the face for Putin': Massive explosion rocks Crimea bridge

A massive explosion has downed a key bridge connecting Russia and Crimea.

www.nzherald.co.nz