Putin's Offensive Campaign. Info

[UTE042_NZ]

"War is a mere continuation of policy by another means." Carl von Clausewitz, 1918

"We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means. All beyond this which is strictly peculiar to War relates merely to the peculiar nature of the means which it uses. That the tendencies and views of policy shall not be incompatible with these means, the Art of War in general and the Commander in each particular case may demand, and this claim is truly not a trifling one. But however powerfully this may react on political views in particular cases, still it must always be regarded as only a modification of them; for the political view is the object, War is the means, and the means must always include the object in our conception."

While Vlad "The Invader" Putin may have heard of and perhaps even read that paragraph from von Clauzewitz's On War, right now he is discovering just how sorely lacking in political skills he is. Narcicistic mob bosses don't put aside their own ego to stroke others' very well at all, and he has been now forced to try and calm multiple controlling factions within the Russian military as they begin to turn on each other over the daily failures and setbacks in Ukraine.

This is all well explained in the latest, reliable, (and available as downloadable pdf files if prefered), regularly updated source of information, with very detailed maps at...

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-4

...a long read for those with the time and inclination. For the others, just move on, eh, nothing to see here.1

 

[Jolls]

"War is a mere continuation of policy by another means." Carl von Clausewitz, 1918

@UTE042_NZ

Thanks for the link - a great overview and probably the least opinionated piece I have read. I sort of get Vlad's desire to maintain instability and acquire resources and to maintain disorganised space between Russia and the West as a barrier. I get his disrespect of NATO and the UN, and that he correctly gambled that they would not become involved. However, I think Vlad missed a key lesson from Mr Tsu in his planning: Victorious warriors win first and then go to war; while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win".

To be honest I expected him to have been knocked by one of his own by now. Given the rhetoric from the milbloggers I expect that there have been thwarted attempts. Either thrwarted in the planning phase or individuals disappearing just in case. I trust he gets knocked sooner rather than later. Problem is who fills the vacuum - a nationalist or a conservative?

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

 

[UTE042_NZ]

@UTE042_NZ

Thanks for the link - a great overview and probably the least opinionated piece I have read. I sort of get Vlad's desire to maintain instability and acquire resources and to maintain disorganised space between Russia and the West as a barrier. I get his disrespect of NATO and the UN, and that he correctly gambled that they would not become involved. However, I think Vlad missed a key lesson from Mr Tsu in his planning: Victorious warriors win first and then go to war; while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win".

To be honest I expected him to have been knocked by one of his own by now. Given the rhetoric from the milbloggers I expect that there have been thwarted attempts. Either thrwarted in the planning phase or individuals disappearing just in case. I trust he gets knocked sooner rather than later. Problem is who fills the vacuum - a nationalist or a conservative?

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

Cheers, Jolls. Glad someone found the balanced reported assessment of use. A few previously supportive "business leaders" have been falling from windows lately.

 

[Jolls]

Cheers, Jolls. Glad someone found the balanced reported assessment of use. A few previously supportive "business leaders" have been falling from windows lately.

Yes, given the temperature over there is only about 8C I'm surprised they had their windows open Some Russian businessmen are just silly!

 

[Immortality]

Putin sure has gambled himself into a corner and I think it's a 50:50 bet at this point if he survives.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Putin sure has gambled himself into a corner and I think it's a 50:50 bet at this point if he survives.

Interestingly, here's another good analytical read on the possibilities of that very subject, by Timothy Snyder. A Professor of History and specialist on east Europe and the Holocaust. Just yesterday he wrote...

How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you

snyder.substack.com

 

[chrisp]

Putin sure has gambled himself into a corner and I think it's a 50:50 bet at this point if he survives.

I haven’t read the articles referenced in this thread, but my thought was that if there was a coup against Putin, they’d probably let Putin do the ‘dirty work’ first before the overthrow. That way the new administration (if there is indeed any) can play the ‘good guys’ while capitalising on any of Putin’s gains.

 

[Jolls]

Interestingly, here's another good analytical read on the possibilities of that very subject, by Timothy Snyder. A Professor of History and specialist on east Europe and the Holocaust. Just yesterday he wrote...

http://[URL]https://snyder.substack...ar?r=8u0q8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[/URL]

Not a bad read - I think he is close to the mark in relation to Russia starting to internalise the conflict and that will cause Vlad to focus more and more on maintaining his power.

He has missed one factor in his analysis though. The conventional fight does not have end with a mushroom cloud followed by a nuclear winter. Russia, like the US and UK, have the ability to use tactical nuclear weapons. Airburst to prevent irradiating the earth but potent enough to turn the tide if used correctly. Would he use them? Bloody hard question to answer; I guess it depends on how far his own belief in what the west will do in response. It would certainly take the focus off internal issues in Russia and with the right propaganda could be twisted to make Vlad appear strong and in control. Could it be the act of a desperate man? Maybe - I just hope not.

I'm all for an internal conflict leading to a coup - not sure those leading the charge will be much better though. Moderates and assassinations don't usually go well together.

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

 

[Immortality]

Any use of a nuke would **** Putin in the long run, it would make him best mates with Kim Jong-un and no mates everywhere else. The use of 1 or 2 tactical nukes would make no difference as the front lines are long with no major troop concentrations and would most likely get as many of his own troops as Ukrainians.

Putin has bluffed and been called out, I don't think he will use nukes.

Right now, from a military perspective, Russian troops are in a similar predicament as the Nazi troops were in the battle of Stalingrad in 1943. Winter is coming, Russian troops are on the defensive and poorly equipped. Winter will make or break the Russian forces on the ground if the war lasts that long. I think Putin didn't study history very well, he's also making the same mistakes Hitler made during the Battle of Britain, he's wasting equipment and supplies targeting civilian infrastructure instead of military targets and then giving orders troops can't retreat.

This war is far from over but it will be one for the history books when it's done.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

To be fair, Prof. Snyder did cover early in the piece how Putin is using the hint of a threat of Nuclear weapons as a form of psych warfare. From the fourth paragraph, as Putin knows it has been boogey man in western culture for two generations and is a trigger for our media. And how it's a bluff to get us thinking wrong so as to pressure Ukraine to negotiate.
The information regarding Kadyrov and Prigozhin (Leaders of the Chechnyan forces and the Wagner private mercenary group respectively) interested me. Was very detailed and recent updates on generalisations I have been reading about. Also, Snyder knows well the ground being fought over and quite a few of the people living, and probably some fighting, there. He doesn't just sit behind a desk at Yale, he has spent months at a time, over many years travelling, researching, reading, asking, and talking to them about their history there. Claims he can speak five European languages and read ten, including Russian. When I saw a photo of him I thought "Jees, how much of his head is brain?" because he has so much forehead. Not like Putin who actually has a small head, but his forehead sometimes looks larger than it is because he is balding and has almost no chin at all. Which is not unusual for a midget or a runt.